Premeir League - Predictability in Pictures
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This won’t be the first time you’ve heard the statement that the Premier League has become terribly predictable. It might be the first time you’ll appreciate just how bad the situation has become, and how this trend will continue unless something fundamental is changed.
Before we get to the pictures I’ve promised, let’s talk about Liverpool’s domination of the 70’s and 80’s, which is often brought up to paint the picture that the current situation is just the same as it ever was.
It’s true that Liverpool did dominate that time period. The Reds only finished outside the top-2 only once in a 19-year span starting in 1972-73, winning the Championship 11 times. Wow.
But to understand how predictable that time period wasn’t, take a look at the teams that did manage to usurp Liverpool during that period of dominance:
- Leeds United
- Derby County
- Nottingham Forest
- Aston Villa
- Everton
- Arsenal
So while Liverpool were bossing the league for almost two decades, the supporters of other clubs could enjoy a realistic notion of not only finishing in the top few positions, but even finishing above the best club side in the world. That, my friend, is unpredictability, and it’s what gets the juices flowing if you’re a football fan.
Now that we’ve put “Liverpool dominated for twenty years” into some kind of perspective, let’s move on to the pictures.
I have just two charts to share with you: First I divided the last 35 years into five-year chunks and looked at how many different teams managed to finish in the top-4. Bear in mind that, by definition, the minimum is four.
For twenty years, 10 different teams (on average) finished in the top-4 in a five-year span. In other words, almost half the league could expect what today would result in Champions League qualification. Think about how exciting that must have been for fans. Five years isn’t very long to wait for a shot at the top few spots.
By contrast, in the last ten years that number has fallen from 10 to 6.
That’s clearly a big drop, but does it really call for doom-and-gloom?
The second chart will illustrate another aspect of predictability. The next chart shows the number of teams that finished in the top-4 for all five of the years in same five-year periods.
The feat of staying in the top-4 for five years in a row was only achieved on two occasions in the first twenty years of this chart. Apart from Liverpool, no other team managed a sustained period of dominance, and even Liverpool were knocked off their perch on occasions.
In the last ten years, this once-rare accomplishment has become common-place. Arsenal have been in the top-4 for the last ten years, and Manchester United for the last fifteen. We can also add Chelsea to that list in the last five years.
The most damning piece of news is this: Once a team gets this five-year lock on a Champions League spot, they don’t give it up. First Manchester United, who were joined by Arsenal, and now by Chelsea as well. We’re adding teams that dominate but never taking any away.
This is what is eroding the passion that football supporters feel for the game. It’s hard to feel passionate about finishing “somewhere above the middle but not near the top”, which is pretty much the best that the majority of fans can hope for.
If the thought of a fifth-place finish does get your heart beating, I hope this brief history lesson illustrats that this shows the lack of ambition that has been forced on most teams and most fans.
A parting thought: By the time the 2007-08 season finishes, the number of different teams enjoying a top-4 finish in the last five years will likely fall to five. That will take us just one step away from the worst-possible scenario - the same four teams in the top-4 year after year after year.
Amen to this. Very well thought out post which explains many of our frustrations with the game. I have always felt the British football style was the most entertaining but today find myself watching the Bundesliga or second tier Euro leagues in many cases instead of the PL because the results are less predictable and managers of smaller clubs are less likely to play for a stalemate.
Also bumming me out are the new fans to the PL who automatically pick a top four club to be front runners and then make poor jokes about the likes of Fulham, Debry, Boro, Newcastle, etc without understanding the history of the league and passion supporters of those clubs: Boro and Newcastle in particular have for the game.
I was really unhappy recently when I saw a newly minted Chelsea fan write a blog post about the pathetic crowds at the Riverside. He said Middlesbrough didn’t deserve a football club in the top flight. This clown has no business commenting on football. Doesn’t he realize the ticket prices are through the roof and Middlesbrough is a working class town? Doesn’t he realize that the fans don’t want to pay exorbitant prices to see a very predictable result? Doesn’t he realize their was a history in English football before the cartel known as the Premier League began play?
The same “fan” has subsequently written posts about how poor a club Blackburn is to be in a small town and have such poor attendance. Little does he know Rovers won a Premier League title when Chelsea had been trophy-less for 50 years!
We do need to re-think this game and I salute you Phil for this insightful blog.
The great thing about English football has always been the abundance of big clubs with sizeable support in comparison to other countries.
Let’s hope this doesn’t change.
I fear for the future of the sport in our country if the dominance of the “top four” continues year after year after year.
It’s killing interest in the game. Look at how attendances are falling among a number clubs outside the top four.
Everything has become oh so predictable. Where’s the excitement?