Rethinking Football / SoccerShout.com

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We’ve seen how the teams that occupy the top spots in the Premier League have become increasingly easy to predict. Once a team spends five years in the top four, they never leave - a trend that has lasted for fifteen years and counting. In this post, I have a chart that shows how the gap between the teams in first and fifth place have increased dramatically over recent years.

[A note on the points totals in this (and similar) posts. Whenever I compare points totals in today’s Premier League to the Division One from 20 or 30 years ago, I adjust the older points total to make it comparable to today. Specifically, I re-calculate using three points for a win, and then reduce the number of points proportionally to allow for the number of games played in a season - 38, 40 or 42].

Between 1973 and 1997, the average number of points separating first and fifth place was 16 points. This shows how compact the league used to be - just five or six wins separating the top five places. A fan can usually look back on a season and five a handful of results that could have been wins instead of defeats, so they could live in hope and think of what might have been.  This applies not just to the team that came second, but for the fans of the top-5.

Looking at the last five years, that gap has been stretched to 29 points. Early on in the season, fans quickly realise that this isn’t going to be their year. The focus becomes who will qualify for the UEFA Cup - which is something, but not as exciting as winning the league. The UEFA Cup has become a goal, rather than a consolation, for many teams.

The question becomes - how much worse will this situation become? The rate of increase surely can’t continue, but with the money being thrown at the teams at the top four, I’m betting it will get worse rather than better.