Posts Tagged ‘Derby’
Riffing on Derby’s Pain
Written by Phil McThomas on March 29, 2008 – 2:37 pmIf you're new here, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!
So here we are, gathered to bid farewell to Derby’s short and inglorious stint in the Premier League. It’s common knowledge to football fans that the play-off winner barely stands a chance of Premier League survival. What might not be so well-known is that a bad situation is getting worse. And this is to the benefit of the established teams in the league.
If we take the current season as a foregone conclusion - a liberty I’m not afraid to take - there have been sixteen Premier League seasons. In ten of those season, the play-off winner has been relegated at the first attempt - a 37% chance of survival.
However, if you look at the last five seasons, that rate of survival has dropped to just 20% - West Ham in 2006 being the only exception to the relegation rule.

What does that mean to the rest of the league? It’s good news - great news, actually. Instead of three relegation places to fret about, there’s now effectively two. Who wouldn’t welcome that?
Football fans.
We’ve seen how three of the top four teams are effectively pre-ordained before the season begins. Now we see that one of the three relegation spots is taken care of. The aspirations of most teams now lie somewhere between “lower-mid-table” and “upper-mid-table” - not much to get excited about, is it?
So long Derby, and thanks for all the points. You might have had a miserable, dull season but you should take a crumb of comfort in the fact that most other teams are also having a miserable, dull season (just not quite as bad as yours).
Tags: Derby
Posted in Rethinking Competition | Comments Off